Cabinet Sales Gains Extend Through July, KCMA Reports

RESTON, VA — Domestic kitchen cabinet and vanity manufacturers continued to post substantial sales gains through the first seven months of 2021, according to the latest in a series of monthly surveys by the Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association.

The KCMA’s latest “Trend of Business Survey” reflected a year-to-date sales increase of 18.3% through July, compared to the same seven-month period in 2020. Custom cabinet sales through the first seven months were reported up 21.5% over the same period last year, while semi-custom sales rose 17.6% and sales of stock cabinets gained 18.1%, the Reston, VA-based KCMA said.

July sales were up 7.2% compared to the same month last year, the association added.

 

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Leads Robust, But Margins Being Squeezed, KBDN Survey Finds

CHICAGO — Sales leads and project requests are robust, and revenue forecasts are bullish, but profit margins are reportedly being squeezed, COVID-19 remains a concern, and kitchen/bath dealers and designers continue to face supply-chain snafus, product price hikes, a skilled-labor shortage, and other headwinds to more robust growth in the months ahead.

That’s the primary consensus of a series of surveys conducted by Kitchen & Bath Design News and other industry sources attempting to get a handle on 2022 business prospects, following a year in which the kitchen/bath market witnessed sharp growth in both its remodeling and new-construction sectors, while COVID-19 continued to reshape the nation’s housing landscape, incomes and saving accounts rose, design trends and homeowner demographics evolved, and larger, more-multi-functional homes continued to remain a focus of consumer spending

But the pace of market growth, while projected to be palpable, has tapered off in recent months, and is expected to cool even more in the months ahead, as inflation scythes through the economy, product and labor availability continue to hamstring design/remodeling firms, housing affordability remains at historically low levels, and uncertainties tied to the coronavirus continue to loom.

KBDN’s nationwide survey of dealers and designers, conducted at the tail end of 2021, found that an overwhelming majority (86+%) of those polled said they expect their company’s revenue to either increase or remain roughly the same in 2022 compared to 2021. In contrast, less than 14% said they anticipate a revenue decline in 2022. Revenue gains are anticipated for both new and remodeled kitchens and baths, although dealers and designers are more bullish about revenue growth from kitchens (34.2%) than they are from baths (7.9%).

Dealers and designers also report that sales leads and project requests are up dramatically compared to the same time a year ago – understandable given how the current confluence of COVID-related demand, savings growth, home appreciation, government stimulus and other factors continue to spur homeowner spending. Specifically, a whopping 65+% of survey participants report their current sales leads are either somewhat or much higher now compared to a year ago, while only about 15% report that sales leads are lower and about 19% say they are about the same.

But while sales leads and strong, and revenue is generally expected to increase, surveyed dealers and designers paint a different picture when it comes to anticipated profit margins. For example, while 33.6% of those surveyed expect 2022 profit margins to increase, 14.2% expect margins to decline compared to 2021, and more than half (52.2%) expect margins to remain the same.

Other survey findings:

n With the COVID-driven emphasis on health and wellness, work-at-home arrangements and families sheltering in place, increases in client requests are being reported for products that range from universal design, smart appliances and aging-in-place elements to outdoor kitchens, anti-microbial materials and home ventilation.

n Pricing is apparently not a major factor for clients, many of whom seem willing to spend whatever it takes to get the kitchens and bathrooms that they want. For instance, while roughly 60% of the dealers and designers surveyed by KBDN say that pricing is either less important to clients or about the same as it was a year ago, far less (40%) say that pricing is more critical to clients now.

n While 51% of the design professionals surveyed say they are either extremely, very concerned or somewhat concerned about COVID-19 negatively impacting their business operations and profits in 2022, more than half (54%) say they are “not very” or “not at all” concerned, even in light of the new Omicron variant impacting the nation.

n While less than 5% of survey respondents report clients postponing or cancelling projects, nearly 44% report they are experiencing longer lead times for product deliveries and/or production and shipping delays.

 

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Pace of Market Growth Seen Cooling After Strong 2021 Gains

HACKETTSTOWN, NJ — Ongoing supply-chain disruptions coupled with labor shortages, higher material costs and emerging uncertainties wrought by COVID-19 are cooling the pace of kitchen and bath market growth in the wake of an exceptionally strong year in 2021.

According to the latest Market Forecast Report issued in recent weeks by the National Kitchen & Bath Association, the 2021 kitchen and bath industry posted healthy, double-digit gains over 2020, although growth projections were “pared back a bit” compared to the NKBA’s previous (July 2021) forecast, “as lingering issues caused by the pandemic seem to be catching up to consumer sentiment.”

The NKBA projected total 2021 revenues of $167 billion, a 19% increase over the $141 billion that was posted in 2020, but lower than earlier forecasts, which predicted that full-year revenue totals would reach $171 billion.

“2021 has been like none other for our industry, as strong growth across virtually every sector led to record revenues,” said Bill Darcy, CEO of the Hackettstown, NJ-based NKBA. However, some homeowners, faced with price increases related to supply chain disruptions, “are deferring projects until they’ve enough saved to get exactly what they want, or in the hope that costs will come down,” Darcy added.

The NKBA reported a nearly 10% year-over-year growth in the kitchen and bath remodeling sector in 2021, and a 26% growth in the new construction sector. Premium projects were up by more than 22%, while low-end projects grew about 11%, “suggesting a cooling of the DIY trend,” the NKBA said.

“These findings are very encouraging and indicate that…growth should be sustained into 2022,” Darcy said.

In related news, the latest NKBA/John Burns Real Estate Consulting “Kitchen & Bath Market Index,” issued in December, remained in “solidly expanding territory,” but cooled from the record number posted in the previous quarter. Expected future activity “also tailed off a bit,” having peaked in the first quarter of 2021, reported the NKBA and John Burns.

“In relative terms, the outlook remains quite positive,” with association members projecting about a 9% sales gain in 2022 – “impressive if it holds true, given 2021’s strong growth,” said the NKBA, adding that supply chain disruptions, cost of materials and availability of skilled labor are hampering the industry’s ability to take full advantage of strong demand…as NKBA members scramble to meet client needs, with most resorting to brands they’ve never previously used.”

Other findings of the NKBA/John Burns Report were as follows:

n The challenging business environment has forced the industry to become “supplier/vendor agnostic” – prioritizing product availability above other factors. The industry has also moved toward sourcing more domestic-based products in an attempt to circumvent global supply chain issues. Manufacturers are prioritizing high-value products to protect profit margins while stockpiling excess materials to help ease lead times and overall constraints.

n The kitchen and bath industry continues to feel the pains of ongoing supply chain challenges. Port congestion is further compounding strained supply chains that are still recovering from the effects of Winter Storm Uri and Hurricane Ida, while labor shortages are causing delays in the trucking industry. Meanwhile, lead times for domestic and foreign raw materials are well over 6+ weeks and has many within the sector struggling to keep up with demand in today’s economy. As a result, product backlogs extend well into 2022 as these difficulties prevent those in the industry from staffing full production schedules.

n Even in the face of ongoing challenges, the industry remains cautiously optimistic about the health of the sector. Despite projects being pushed into 2022, the industry is continuing to see demand for building and construction projects as 84% of firms report low postponement rates and 90% report low cancellation rates relative to their overall project volume.

 

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